Retrieving structural indicators from the World Bank Data360 API.
A country profile requests every registry indicator for the economy and its curated peers. Responses are cached for 24 hours after the first retrieval.
Retrieving structural indicators from the World Bank Data360 API.
A country profile requests every registry indicator for the economy and its curated peers. Responses are cached for 24 hours after the first retrieval.
75 alerts across 10 monitored economies: 6 material, 66 notable, 3 informational.
Sustained deterioration
Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) moved adversely across 8 consecutive observations, 2015 to 2023.
Undernourishment
2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023
Movement is in the human development domain, where sustained adverse change indicates a shift in the structural baseline rather than short-term volatility. The latest value sits at the 96th percentile of the country's own observed history. Structural food insecurity baseline. It is not a substitute for IPC phase classification or humanitarian caseload data, which operate on a far shorter cycle.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Sustained deterioration
Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) moved adversely across 3 consecutive observations, 2020 to 2023.
Undernourishment
2020, 2021, 2022, 2023
Movement is in the human development domain, where sustained adverse change indicates a shift in the structural baseline rather than short-term volatility. The latest value sits at the 96th percentile of the country's own observed history. Structural food insecurity baseline. It is not a substitute for IPC phase classification or humanitarian caseload data, which operate on a far shorter cycle.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Sustained deterioration
Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group) moved adversely across 5 consecutive observations, 2016 to 2024.
Primary completion
2016, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024
Movement is in the human development domain, where sustained adverse change indicates a shift in the structural baseline rather than short-term volatility. The latest value sits at the 5th percentile of the country's own observed history. In conflict-affected areas school closure suppresses this figure with a lag, so a fall may register years after the disruption that caused it.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Sustained deterioration
Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) moved adversely across 5 consecutive observations, 2018 to 2023.
Undernourishment
2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023
Movement is in the human development domain, where sustained adverse change indicates a shift in the structural baseline rather than short-term volatility. The latest value sits at the 96th percentile of the country's own observed history. Structural food insecurity baseline. It is not a substitute for IPC phase classification or humanitarian caseload data, which operate on a far shorter cycle.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Sustained deterioration
Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) moved adversely across 3 consecutive observations, 2020 to 2023.
Undernourishment
2020, 2021, 2022, 2023
Movement is in the human development domain, where sustained adverse change indicates a shift in the structural baseline rather than short-term volatility. The latest value sits at the 96th percentile of the country's own observed history. Structural food insecurity baseline. It is not a substitute for IPC phase classification or humanitarian caseload data, which operate on a far shorter cycle.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Sustained deterioration
Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) moved adversely across 5 consecutive observations, 2018 to 2023.
Undernourishment
2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023
Movement is in the human development domain, where sustained adverse change indicates a shift in the structural baseline rather than short-term volatility. The latest value sits at the 96th percentile of the country's own observed history. Structural food insecurity baseline. It is not a substitute for IPC phase classification or humanitarian caseload data, which operate on a far shorter cycle.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
GDP (annual % growth) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
GDP growth
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Aggregate output growth. A single weak year is ordinary volatility; sustained contraction relative to population growth is the analytically meaningful pattern.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
GDP per capita
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Constant-price series, so changes reflect real output per head rather than price movement. Says nothing about distribution; read with the Gini index.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Inflation, consumer prices (annual % growth) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
CPI inflation
2022
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. National CPI. Household exposure depends on the food and fuel share of the basket, which the headline rate does not reveal.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force, modeled ILO estimate) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Unemployment
2022
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Modeled ILO estimate, not a national survey figure. In economies with large informal sectors the rate understates labour underutilisation, so compare it against peers and its own history rather than reading the level alone.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Unemployment, youth total (% of labor force ages 15-24, modeled ILO estimate) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Youth unemployment
2022
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Read alongside the 0-14 population share. A large youth cohort entering a labour market that is not absorbing it is a structural condition, not a mobilisation mechanism.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
GDP (annual % growth) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
GDP growth
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Aggregate output growth. A single weak year is ordinary volatility; sustained contraction relative to population growth is the analytically meaningful pattern.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Inflation, consumer prices (annual % growth) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
CPI inflation
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. National CPI. Household exposure depends on the food and fuel share of the basket, which the headline rate does not reveal.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP, % of population) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Poverty headcount
2022
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Survey-based and published irregularly, so the series is sparse and often several years stale. Treat it as a level reading, not a trend.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Population ages 0-14 (% of total population) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Ages 0-14 share
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Forward demand on education, health and employment systems. A youth bulge is a demographic condition; whether it becomes a mobilisation pool depends on institutions, opportunity and actor behaviour.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Life expectancy at birth, total (years) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Life expectancy
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Slow-moving summary of health system performance and living conditions. A sharp reversal is a strong signal precisely because the series is normally stable.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Under-5 mortality
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Sensitive proxy for primary health system reach and nutrition status.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Maternal mortality
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Modeled estimate with wide uncertainty intervals that this series does not carry. Read as level, not precision.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Undernourishment
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Structural food insecurity baseline. It is not a substitute for IPC phase classification or humanitarian caseload data, which operate on a far shorter cycle.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Access to electricity (% of population) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Electricity access
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Proxy for state reach and service delivery, and a direct operational planning input. National coverage conceals large rural and peri-urban gaps.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Individuals using the Internet (% of population) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Internet users
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Connectivity baseline relevant to information environment analysis and to OSINT collection feasibility. It does not capture shutdowns or throttling.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Mobile subscriptions
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Counts subscriptions rather than people, so multi-SIM use inflates it above actual penetration. Useful for communications reach, weak as a welfare proxy.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Inflation, consumer prices (annual % growth) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
CPI inflation
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. National CPI. Household exposure depends on the food and fuel share of the basket, which the headline rate does not reveal.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Life expectancy at birth, total (years) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Life expectancy
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Slow-moving summary of health system performance and living conditions. A sharp reversal is a strong signal precisely because the series is normally stable.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
GDP (annual % growth) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
GDP growth
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Aggregate output growth. A single weak year is ordinary volatility; sustained contraction relative to population growth is the analytically meaningful pattern.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
GDP per capita
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Constant-price series, so changes reflect real output per head rather than price movement. Says nothing about distribution; read with the Gini index.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force, modeled ILO estimate) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Unemployment
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Modeled ILO estimate, not a national survey figure. In economies with large informal sectors the rate understates labour underutilisation, so compare it against peers and its own history rather than reading the level alone.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Unemployment, youth total (% of labor force ages 15-24, modeled ILO estimate) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Youth unemployment
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Read alongside the 0-14 population share. A large youth cohort entering a labour market that is not absorbing it is a structural condition, not a mobilisation mechanism.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Under-5 mortality
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Sensitive proxy for primary health system reach and nutrition status.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Undernourishment
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Structural food insecurity baseline. It is not a substitute for IPC phase classification or humanitarian caseload data, which operate on a far shorter cycle.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Access to electricity (% of population) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Electricity access
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Proxy for state reach and service delivery, and a direct operational planning input. National coverage conceals large rural and peri-urban gaps.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Individuals using the Internet (% of population) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Internet users
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Connectivity baseline relevant to information environment analysis and to OSINT collection feasibility. It does not capture shutdowns or throttling.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Sustained deterioration
Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) moved adversely across 4 consecutive observations, 2019 to 2023.
Undernourishment
2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023
Movement is in the human development domain, where sustained adverse change indicates a shift in the structural baseline rather than short-term volatility. The latest value sits at the 65th percentile of the country's own observed history. Structural food insecurity baseline. It is not a substitute for IPC phase classification or humanitarian caseload data, which operate on a far shorter cycle.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
GDP per capita
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Constant-price series, so changes reflect real output per head rather than price movement. Says nothing about distribution; read with the Gini index.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP, % of population) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Poverty headcount
2021
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Survey-based and published irregularly, so the series is sparse and often several years stale. Treat it as a level reading, not a trend.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Population growth (annual %) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Population growth
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Interpreted as demand pressure on services and labour markets, not as a negative outcome in itself. Its analytic weight depends entirely on whether service delivery and output are keeping pace.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Population ages 0-14 (% of total population) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Ages 0-14 share
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Forward demand on education, health and employment systems. A youth bulge is a demographic condition; whether it becomes a mobilisation pool depends on institutions, opportunity and actor behaviour.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Under-5 mortality
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Sensitive proxy for primary health system reach and nutrition status.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Primary completion
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. In conflict-affected areas school closure suppresses this figure with a lag, so a fall may register years after the disruption that caused it.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Access to electricity (% of population) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Electricity access
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Proxy for state reach and service delivery, and a direct operational planning input. National coverage conceals large rural and peri-urban gaps.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Individuals using the Internet (% of population) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Internet users
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Connectivity baseline relevant to information environment analysis and to OSINT collection feasibility. It does not capture shutdowns or throttling.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Mobile subscriptions
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Counts subscriptions rather than people, so multi-SIM use inflates it above actual penetration. Useful for communications reach, weak as a welfare proxy.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
GDP (annual % growth) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
GDP growth
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Aggregate output growth. A single weak year is ordinary volatility; sustained contraction relative to population growth is the analytically meaningful pattern.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force, modeled ILO estimate) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Unemployment
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Modeled ILO estimate, not a national survey figure. In economies with large informal sectors the rate understates labour underutilisation, so compare it against peers and its own history rather than reading the level alone.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Unemployment, youth total (% of labor force ages 15-24, modeled ILO estimate) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Youth unemployment
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Read alongside the 0-14 population share. A large youth cohort entering a labour market that is not absorbing it is a structural condition, not a mobilisation mechanism.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Maternal mortality
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Modeled estimate with wide uncertainty intervals that this series does not carry. Read as level, not precision.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Access to electricity (% of population) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Electricity access
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Proxy for state reach and service delivery, and a direct operational planning input. National coverage conceals large rural and peri-urban gaps.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Mobile subscriptions
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Counts subscriptions rather than people, so multi-SIM use inflates it above actual penetration. Useful for communications reach, weak as a welfare proxy.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
GDP per capita
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Constant-price series, so changes reflect real output per head rather than price movement. Says nothing about distribution; read with the Gini index.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Mobile subscriptions
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Counts subscriptions rather than people, so multi-SIM use inflates it above actual penetration. Useful for communications reach, weak as a welfare proxy.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Inflation, consumer prices (annual % growth) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
CPI inflation
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. National CPI. Household exposure depends on the food and fuel share of the basket, which the headline rate does not reveal.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Population ages 0-14 (% of total population) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Ages 0-14 share
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Forward demand on education, health and employment systems. A youth bulge is a demographic condition; whether it becomes a mobilisation pool depends on institutions, opportunity and actor behaviour.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Life expectancy at birth, total (years) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Life expectancy
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Slow-moving summary of health system performance and living conditions. A sharp reversal is a strong signal precisely because the series is normally stable.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Maternal mortality
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Modeled estimate with wide uncertainty intervals that this series does not carry. Read as level, not precision.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Undernourishment
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Structural food insecurity baseline. It is not a substitute for IPC phase classification or humanitarian caseload data, which operate on a far shorter cycle.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
GDP per capita
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Constant-price series, so changes reflect real output per head rather than price movement. Says nothing about distribution; read with the Gini index.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Population growth (annual %) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Population growth
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Interpreted as demand pressure on services and labour markets, not as a negative outcome in itself. Its analytic weight depends entirely on whether service delivery and output are keeping pace.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Population ages 0-14 (% of total population) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Ages 0-14 share
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Forward demand on education, health and employment systems. A youth bulge is a demographic condition; whether it becomes a mobilisation pool depends on institutions, opportunity and actor behaviour.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Life expectancy at birth, total (years) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Life expectancy
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Slow-moving summary of health system performance and living conditions. A sharp reversal is a strong signal precisely because the series is normally stable.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) sits at the 90th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Under-5 mortality
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Sensitive proxy for primary health system reach and nutrition status.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Maternal mortality
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Modeled estimate with wide uncertainty intervals that this series does not carry. Read as level, not precision.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Undernourishment
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Structural food insecurity baseline. It is not a substitute for IPC phase classification or humanitarian caseload data, which operate on a far shorter cycle.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Access to electricity (% of population) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Electricity access
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Proxy for state reach and service delivery, and a direct operational planning input. National coverage conceals large rural and peri-urban gaps.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Mobile subscriptions
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Counts subscriptions rather than people, so multi-SIM use inflates it above actual penetration. Useful for communications reach, weak as a welfare proxy.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
GDP (annual % growth) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
GDP growth
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Aggregate output growth. A single weak year is ordinary volatility; sustained contraction relative to population growth is the analytically meaningful pattern.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force, modeled ILO estimate) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Unemployment
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Modeled ILO estimate, not a national survey figure. In economies with large informal sectors the rate understates labour underutilisation, so compare it against peers and its own history rather than reading the level alone.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Unemployment, youth total (% of labor force ages 15-24, modeled ILO estimate) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Youth unemployment
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Read alongside the 0-14 population share. A large youth cohort entering a labour market that is not absorbing it is a structural condition, not a mobilisation mechanism.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Population growth (annual %) sits at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Population growth
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Interpreted as demand pressure on services and labour markets, not as a negative outcome in itself. Its analytic weight depends entirely on whether service delivery and output are keeping pace.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Population ages 0-14 (% of total population) sits at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Ages 0-14 share
2025
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Forward demand on education, health and employment systems. A youth bulge is a demographic condition; whether it becomes a mobilisation pool depends on institutions, opportunity and actor behaviour.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Life expectancy at birth, total (years) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Life expectancy
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Slow-moving summary of health system performance and living conditions. A sharp reversal is a strong signal precisely because the series is normally stable.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Access to electricity (% of population) sits at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Electricity access
2023
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Proxy for state reach and service delivery, and a direct operational planning input. National coverage conceals large rural and peri-urban gaps.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Peer percentile crossing
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) sits at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set, inside the adverse 25% tail.
Mobile subscriptions
2024
Position within a curated peer group separates a country-specific condition from a regional pattern. A peer-tail position indicates the condition is not simply regional context. Counts subscriptions rather than people, so multi-SIM use inflates it above actual penetration. Useful for communications reach, weak as a welfare proxy.
This is a contextual structural signal derived from development indicators. It is not a prediction of political violence, instability or regime change. Read alongside governance, conflict event, displacement and mobilisation evidence before drawing any judgment.
Stale data
3 indicator(s) have no observation within 6 years of 2026.
Poverty headcount, Primary completion, Internet users
2014, 2017, 2019
Stale series reduce confidence in the structural baseline and constrain which hypotheses the evidence can bear on. Treat the affected domains as under-observed and record the gap in the collection plan rather than reading the last available value as current.
This alert concerns data availability rather than conditions on the ground. Absence of recent observations is itself analytically significant in fragile settings, where statistical capacity often degrades before or during a crisis, but it is not evidence of deterioration.
Stale data
3 indicator(s) have no observation within 6 years of 2026.
Poverty headcount, Primary completion, Adult literacy
2019, 2020
Stale series reduce confidence in the structural baseline and constrain which hypotheses the evidence can bear on. Treat the affected domains as under-observed and record the gap in the collection plan rather than reading the last available value as current.
This alert concerns data availability rather than conditions on the ground. Absence of recent observations is itself analytically significant in fragile settings, where statistical capacity often degrades before or during a crisis, but it is not evidence of deterioration.
Stale data
2 indicator(s) have no observation within 6 years of 2026.
CPI inflation, Poverty headcount
2016, 2020
Stale series reduce confidence in the structural baseline and constrain which hypotheses the evidence can bear on. Treat the affected domains as under-observed and record the gap in the collection plan rather than reading the last available value as current.
This alert concerns data availability rather than conditions on the ground. Absence of recent observations is itself analytically significant in fragile settings, where statistical capacity often degrades before or during a crisis, but it is not evidence of deterioration.