QAP workspace: Niger

Signal model 1.0.0 · Registry 1.0.0 · Scaffolded 2026-09-04

1Key Intelligence Question

ASSESSMENT

Over the next 12 months, how are structural conditions in Niger changing in ways that alter the operating environment, and which of those changes are supported by evidence rather than by inference?

This is a candidate question generated from the country context. Replace it with the question the customer actually needs answered. A well-framed KIQ constrains which evidence is relevant; a generic one lets the available data set the agenda.

2Key Assumptions Check

ASSESSMENT

That conditions measured by 5 indicator(s) whose latest observation is more than three years old remain broadly representative of the present.

untested

If this is wrong

The structural baseline is drawn from a period that no longer describes the operating environment, and every domain reading built on it is unreliable.

5 evidence reference(s)

ASSESSMENT

That modeled and perception-based estimates in this evidence set approximate observed conditions closely enough to support comparison.

partially supported

If this is wrong

Movement in these series may reflect changes in the underlying model, source mix or expert panel rather than any change in the country itself.

7 evidence reference(s)

ASSESSMENT

That structural development conditions are relevant to the Key Intelligence Question at hand, rather than being a baseline the question does not actually turn on.

untested

If this is wrong

The evidence set is well constructed but addressed to the wrong question, and the collection plan should be redirected toward actor, institutional or event evidence.

3Evidence register

34 evidence objects, of which 18 are load bearing: adequate data quality and a signal magnitude of at least 30. The remainder are retained because absence and weakness are themselves analytically relevant.

GDP (annual % growth)

WB_WDI_NY_GDP_MKTP_KD_ZG

Improvement88Adequate

Latest value

7.01PC_A

Period 2025

1 year

-1.32

3 year

-5.21

5 year

+2.55

vs peer median

+1.42

FACT

GDP (annual % growth) for Niger was 7.01 PC_A in 2025 (1y -1.32, 3y -5.21, 5y +2.55).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits in the middle range of the country's own observed history at the 77th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 80th percentile. Aggregate output growth. A single weak year is ordinary volatility; sustained contraction relative to population growth is the analytically meaningful pattern. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: -1.32
3y change: -5.21
5y change: 2.55
5y % change: 57.3%
Historical percentile: 77th
Peer percentile: 80th
Peer deviation: 1.42
Observations: 15
Recency: 1y
Window completeness: 100%

Favourable movement of 2.55 PC_A over 5 years (2020 to 2025).
Latest value sits at the 77th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_NY_GDP_MKTP_KD_ZG
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:38:49.227Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$)

WB_WDI_NY_GDP_PCAP_KD

Improvement52Adequate

Latest value

610.4USD_K_2015

Period 2025

1 year

+21.3

3 year

+44.5

5 year

+78.2

vs peer median

-323

FACT

GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) for Niger was 610.4 USD_K_2015 in 2025 (1y +21.3, 3y +44.5, 5y +78.2).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the top of the country's own observed history at the 97th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 0th percentile. Constant-price series, so changes reflect real output per head rather than price movement. Says nothing about distribution; read with the Gini index. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: 21.3
3y change: 44.5
5y change: 78.2
5y % change: 14.7%
Historical percentile: 97th
Peer percentile: 0th
Peer deviation: -323
Observations: 15
Recency: 1y
Window completeness: 100%

Favourable movement of 78.2 USD_K_2015 over 5 years (2020 to 2025).
Latest value sits at the 97th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_NY_GDP_PCAP_KD
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:38:48.248Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Inflation, consumer prices (annual % growth)

WB_WDI_FP_CPI_TOTL_ZG

Improvement98Adequate

Latest value

-4.45PC_A

Period 2025

1 year

-13.5

3 year

-8.68

5 year

-7.35

vs peer median

-5.56

FACT

Inflation, consumer prices (annual % growth) for Niger was -4.45 PC_A in 2025 (1y -13.5, 3y -8.68, 5y -7.35).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the bottom of the country's own observed history at the 3th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 0th percentile. National CPI. Household exposure depends on the food and fuel share of the basket, which the headline rate does not reveal. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: -13.5
3y change: -8.68
5y change: -7.35
5y % change: -253.7%
Historical percentile: 3th
Peer percentile: 0th
Peer deviation: -5.56
Observations: 15
Recency: 1y
Window completeness: 100%

Favourable movement of -7.35 PC_A over 5 years (2020 to 2025).
Latest value sits at the 3th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_FP_CPI_TOTL_ZG
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:38:49.177Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Unemployment, total (% of total labor force, modeled ILO estimate)

WB_WDI_SL_UEM_TOTL_ZS

Improvement92Adequate

Latest value

0.39PT_LF

Period 2025

1 year

+0.02

3 year

-0.01

5 year

-0.20

vs peer median

n/a

FACT

Unemployment, total (% of total labor force, modeled ILO estimate) for Niger was 0.39 PT_LF in 2025 (1y +0.02, 3y -0.01, 5y -0.20).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the bottom of the country's own observed history at the 17th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 0th percentile. Modeled ILO estimate, not a national survey figure. In economies with large informal sectors the rate understates labour underutilisation, so compare it against peers and its own history rather than reading the level alone. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: 0.02
3y change: -0.01
5y change: -0.20
5y % change: -33.3%
Historical percentile: 17th
Peer percentile: 0th
Peer deviation: n/a
Observations: 15
Recency: 1y
Window completeness: 100%

Peer deviation reported as percentile rank only: levels are not directly comparable across these economies.
Favourable movement of -0.20 PT_LF over 5 years (2020 to 2025).
Latest value sits at the 17th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SL_UEM_TOTL_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:38:49.004Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Unemployment, youth total (% of labor force ages 15-24, modeled ILO estimate)

WB_WDI_SL_UEM_1524_ZS

Improvement88Adequate

Latest value

0.46PT_LF_Y15T24

Period 2025

1 year

+0.07

3 year

+0.06

5 year

-0.29

vs peer median

n/a

FACT

Unemployment, youth total (% of labor force ages 15-24, modeled ILO estimate) for Niger was 0.46 PT_LF_Y15T24 in 2025 (1y +0.07, 3y +0.06, 5y -0.29).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits in the middle range of the country's own observed history at the 23th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 0th percentile. Read alongside the 0-14 population share. A large youth cohort entering a labour market that is not absorbing it is a structural condition, not a mobilisation mechanism. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: 0.07
3y change: 0.06
5y change: -0.29
5y % change: -38.5%
Historical percentile: 23th
Peer percentile: 0th
Peer deviation: n/a
Observations: 15
Recency: 1y
Window completeness: 100%

Peer deviation reported as percentile rank only: levels are not directly comparable across these economies.
Favourable movement of -0.29 PT_LF_Y15T24 over 5 years (2020 to 2025).
Latest value sits at the 23th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SL_UEM_1524_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:38:58.662Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP, % of population)

WB_WDI_SI_POV_DDAY

Stable0Limited

Latest value

60.5PT_POP

Period 2021

1 year

n/a

3 year

+1.50

5 year

n/a

vs peer median

+21.0

FACT

Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP, % of population) for Niger was 60.50 PT_POP in 2021 (3y +1.50).

ASSESSMENT

The series is broadly flat against this country's own recent baseline. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 100th percentile. Survey-based and published irregularly, so the series is sparse and often several years stale. Treat it as a level reading, not a trend. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: flat
1y change: n/a
3y change: 1.50
5y change: n/a
5y % change: n/a
Historical percentile: not computed
Peer percentile: 100th
Peer deviation: 21.0
Observations: 4
Recency: 5y
Window completeness: 27%

Change of 1.50 PT_POP between 2018 and 2021 falls inside the 5% noise band.
Historical percentile not computed: fewer than 8 observations.
Latest value ranks at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).
Magnitude reduced because the evidence is graded limited.
Most recent observation is 5 years old (2021).

Low confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SI_POV_DDAY
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:38:57.182Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Population, total

WB_WDI_SP_POP_TOTL

Insufficient evidenceAdequate

Latest value

27,917,831PS

Period 2025

1 year

+885419

3 year

+2605858

5 year

+4200218

vs peer median

+3843251

FACT

Population, total for Niger was 27,917,831 PS in 2025 (1y +885419, 3y +2605858, 5y +4200218).

ASSESSMENT

Evidence is insufficient to assess direction for this indicator. 15 observations covering 100% of the window, most recent 2025. No structural reading should be drawn from this series until coverage improves or an alternative measure is substituted.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: 885419
3y change: 2605858
5y change: 4200218
5y % change: 17.7%
Historical percentile: 97th
Peer percentile: 80th
Peer deviation: 3843251
Observations: 15
Recency: 1y
Window completeness: 100%

Indicator is contextual by design: it carries no normative direction and does not contribute to any domain signal.

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SP_POP_TOTL
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:38:57.106Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Population growth (annual %)

WB_WDI_SP_POP_GROW

Stable23Adequate

Latest value

3.22PC_A

Period 2025

1 year

-0.06

3 year

-0.03

5 year

-0.08

vs peer median

+0.82

FACT

Population growth (annual %) for Niger was 3.22 PC_A in 2025 (1y -0.06, 3y -0.03, 5y -0.08).

ASSESSMENT

The series is broadly flat against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the bottom of the country's own observed history at the 3th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 80th percentile. Interpreted as demand pressure on services and labour markets, not as a negative outcome in itself. Its analytic weight depends entirely on whether service delivery and output are keeping pace. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: flat
1y change: -0.06
3y change: -0.03
5y change: -0.08
5y % change: -2.3%
Historical percentile: 3th
Peer percentile: 80th
Peer deviation: 0.82
Observations: 15
Recency: 1y
Window completeness: 100%

Change of -0.08 PC_A between 2020 and 2025 falls inside the 5% noise band.
Latest value sits at the 3th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SP_POP_GROW
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:38:58.924Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Population ages 0-14 (% of total population)

WB_WDI_SP_POP_0014_TO_ZS

Stable23Adequate

Latest value

46.2PT

Period 2025

1 year

-0.37

3 year

-1.10

5 year

-1.79

vs peer median

+4.97

FACT

Population ages 0-14 (% of total population) for Niger was 46.23 PT in 2025 (1y -0.37, 3y -1.10, 5y -1.79).

ASSESSMENT

The series is broadly flat against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the bottom of the country's own observed history at the 3th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 100th percentile. Forward demand on education, health and employment systems. A youth bulge is a demographic condition; whether it becomes a mobilisation pool depends on institutions, opportunity and actor behaviour. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: flat
1y change: -0.37
3y change: -1.10
5y change: -1.79
5y % change: -3.7%
Historical percentile: 3th
Peer percentile: 100th
Peer deviation: 4.97
Observations: 15
Recency: 1y
Window completeness: 100%

Change of -1.79 PT between 2020 and 2025 falls inside the 5% noise band.
Latest value sits at the 3th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SP_POP_0014_TO_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:07.300Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Urban population (% of total population)

WB_WDI_SP_URB_TOTL_IN_ZS

Insufficient evidenceAdequate

Latest value

18.4PT

Period 2025

1 year

+0.32

3 year

+0.90

5 year

+1.37

vs peer median

-13.8

FACT

Urban population (% of total population) for Niger was 18.37 PT in 2025 (1y +0.32, 3y +0.90, 5y +1.37).

ASSESSMENT

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: 0.32
3y change: 0.90
5y change: 1.37
5y % change: 8.0%
Historical percentile: 97th
Peer percentile: 0th
Peer deviation: -13.8
Observations: 15
Recency: 1y
Window completeness: 100%

Indicator is contextual by design: it carries no normative direction and does not contribute to any domain signal.

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SP_URB_TOTL_IN_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:09.386Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Fertility rate, total (births per woman)

WB_WDI_SP_DYN_TFRT_IN

Insufficient evidenceAdequate

Latest value

5.94BR_W

Period 2024

1 year

-0.13

3 year

-0.27

5 year

-0.60

vs peer median

+1.45

FACT

Fertility rate, total (births per woman) for Niger was 5.93 BR_W in 2024 (1y -0.13, 3y -0.27, 5y -0.60).

ASSESSMENT

Evidence is insufficient to assess direction for this indicator. 14 observations covering 93% of the window, most recent 2024. No structural reading should be drawn from this series until coverage improves or an alternative measure is substituted.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: -0.13
3y change: -0.27
5y change: -0.60
5y % change: -9.2%
Historical percentile: 4th
Peer percentile: 80th
Peer deviation: 1.45
Observations: 14
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 93%

Indicator is contextual by design: it carries no normative direction and does not contribute to any domain signal.

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SP_DYN_TFRT_IN
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:08.485Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Life expectancy at birth, total (years)

WB_WDI_SP_DYN_LE00_IN

Stable23Adequate

Latest value

61.4YR

Period 2024

1 year

+0.25

3 year

+1.89

5 year

+1.40

vs peer median

+0.76

FACT

Life expectancy at birth, total (years) for Niger was 61.43 YR in 2024 (1y +0.25, 3y +1.89, 5y +1.40).

ASSESSMENT

The series is broadly flat against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the top of the country's own observed history at the 96th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 100th percentile. Slow-moving summary of health system performance and living conditions. A sharp reversal is a strong signal precisely because the series is normally stable. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: flat
1y change: 0.25
3y change: 1.89
5y change: 1.40
5y % change: 2.3%
Historical percentile: 96th
Peer percentile: 100th
Peer deviation: 0.76
Observations: 14
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 93%

Change of 1.40 YR between 2019 and 2024 falls inside the 5% noise band.
Latest value sits at the 96th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 100th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SP_DYN_LE00_IN
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:06.863Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)

WB_WDI_SH_DYN_MORT

Improvement33Adequate

Latest value

110.7DT_10P3BR_L

Period 2024

1 year

-2.80

3 year

-7.30

5 year

-10.1

vs peer median

+35.8

FACT

Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) for Niger was 110.7 DT_10P3BR_L in 2024 (1y -2.80, 3y -7.30, 5y -10.1).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the bottom of the country's own observed history at the 4th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 80th percentile. Sensitive proxy for primary health system reach and nutrition status. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: -2.80
3y change: -7.30
5y change: -10.1
5y % change: -8.4%
Historical percentile: 4th
Peer percentile: 80th
Peer deviation: 35.8
Observations: 14
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 93%

Favourable movement of -10.1 DT_10P3BR_L over 5 years (2019 to 2024).
Latest value sits at the 4th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SH_DYN_MORT
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:20.535Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births)

WB_WDI_SH_STA_MMRT

Improvement58Adequate

Latest value

350.0DT_10P5BR_L

Period 2023

1 year

-11.0

3 year

-38.0

5 year

-70.0

vs peer median

-168

FACT

Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) for Niger was 350.0 DT_10P5BR_L in 2023 (1y -11.0, 3y -38.0, 5y -70.0).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the bottom of the country's own observed history at the 4th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 20th percentile. Modeled estimate with wide uncertainty intervals that this series does not carry. Read as level, not precision. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: -11.0
3y change: -38.0
5y change: -70.0
5y % change: -16.7%
Historical percentile: 4th
Peer percentile: 20th
Peer deviation: -168
Observations: 13
Recency: 3y
Window completeness: 87%

Favourable movement of -70.0 DT_10P5BR_L over 5 years (2018 to 2023).
Latest value sits at the 4th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

Moderate confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SH_STA_MMRT
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:19.417Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group)

WB_WDI_SE_PRM_CMPT_ZS

Deterioration98Adequate

Latest value

40.8PT

Period 2024

1 year

-5.03

3 year

-17.2

5 year

-21.0

vs peer median

-9.44

FACT

Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group) for Niger was 40.76 PT in 2024 (1y -5.03, 3y -17.2, 5y -21.0).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows sustained adverse movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the bottom of the country's own observed history at the 5th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 0th percentile. In conflict-affected areas school closure suppresses this figure with a lag, so a fall may register years after the disruption that caused it. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: -5.03
3y change: -17.2
5y change: -21.0
5y % change: -34.0%
Historical percentile: 5th
Peer percentile: 0th
Peer deviation: -9.44
Observations: 10
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 67%

Adverse movement of -21.0 PT over 5 years (2019 to 2024), given that for this indicator a falling value indicates declining structural capacity.
Latest value sits at the 5th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set (4 economies with data).

Moderate confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SE_PRM_CMPT_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:19.257Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)

WB_WDI_SE_ADT_LITR_ZS

Improvement8Limited

Latest value

35.6PT

Period 2022

1 year

n/a

3 year

+2.56

5 year

+2.56

vs peer median

n/a

FACT

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) for Niger was 35.61 PT in 2022 (3y +2.56, 5y +2.56).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. Cross-country comparison is withheld: the measurement concept is not comparable across these economies. Census and survey dependent, so the series is sparse and irregular. Definitions differ enough between collection rounds that cross-country comparison is not defensible. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: n/a
3y change: 2.56
5y change: 2.56
5y % change: 7.7%
Historical percentile: not computed
Peer percentile: withheld
Peer deviation: n/a
Observations: 4
Recency: 4y
Window completeness: 27%

Peer comparison suppressed: this indicator is only interpretable against the country’s own history.
Favourable movement of 2.56 PT over 4 years (2018 to 2022).
Historical percentile not computed: fewer than 8 observations.
Magnitude reduced because the evidence is graded limited.
Most recent observation is 4 years old (2022).

Low confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SE_ADT_LITR_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:18.801Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)

WB_WDI_SN_ITK_DEFC_ZS

Deterioration48Adequate

Latest value

12.9PT_POP

Period 2023

1 year

+0.20

3 year

+2.00

5 year

+2.00

vs peer median

-1.40

FACT

Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) for Niger was 12.90 PT_POP in 2023 (1y +0.20, 3y +2.00, 5y +2.00).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows sustained adverse movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits in the middle range of the country's own observed history at the 65th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 20th percentile. Structural food insecurity baseline. It is not a substitute for IPC phase classification or humanitarian caseload data, which operate on a far shorter cycle. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: 0.20
3y change: 2.00
5y change: 2.00
5y % change: 18.3%
Historical percentile: 65th
Peer percentile: 20th
Peer deviation: -1.40
Observations: 13
Recency: 3y
Window completeness: 87%

Adverse movement of 2.00 PT_POP over 5 years (2018 to 2023), given that for this indicator a rising value indicates rising structural pressure.
Latest value sits at the 65th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

Moderate confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SN_ITK_DEFC_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:29.685Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Access to electricity (% of population)

WB_WDI_EG_ELC_ACCS_ZS

Improvement51Adequate

Latest value

20.1PT_POP

Period 2023

1 year

+0.60

3 year

+1.40

5 year

+2.50

vs peer median

-34.4

FACT

Access to electricity (% of population) for Niger was 20.10 PT_POP in 2023 (1y +0.60, 3y +1.40, 5y +2.50).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the top of the country's own observed history at the 96th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 20th percentile. Proxy for state reach and service delivery, and a direct operational planning input. National coverage conceals large rural and peri-urban gaps. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: 0.60
3y change: 1.40
5y change: 2.50
5y % change: 14.2%
Historical percentile: 96th
Peer percentile: 20th
Peer deviation: -34.4
Observations: 13
Recency: 3y
Window completeness: 87%

Favourable movement of 2.50 PT_POP over 5 years (2018 to 2023).
Latest value sits at the 96th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

Moderate confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_EG_ELC_ACCS_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:29.586Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Individuals using the Internet (% of population)

WB_WDI_IT_NET_USER_ZS

Improvement98Adequate

Latest value

15.6PT_POP

Period 2024

1 year

+2.58

3 year

+3.10

5 year

+4.27

vs peer median

-18.4

FACT

Individuals using the Internet (% of population) for Niger was 15.56 PT_POP in 2024 (1y +2.58, 3y +3.10, 5y +4.27).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the top of the country's own observed history at the 96th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 20th percentile. Connectivity baseline relevant to information environment analysis and to OSINT collection feasibility. It does not capture shutdowns or throttling. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: 2.58
3y change: 3.10
5y change: 4.27
5y % change: 37.9%
Historical percentile: 96th
Peer percentile: 20th
Peer deviation: -18.4
Observations: 14
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 93%

Favourable movement of 4.27 PT_POP over 5 years (2019 to 2024).
Latest value sits at the 96th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_IT_NET_USER_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:34.200Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)

WB_WDI_IT_CEL_SETS_P2

Improvement41Adequate

Latest value

60.610P2PS

Period 2024

1 year

-5.14

3 year

-0.91

5 year

+7.78

vs peer median

-51.5

FACT

Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) for Niger was 60.59 10P2PS in 2024 (1y -5.14, 3y -0.91, 5y +7.78).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits in the middle range of the country's own observed history at the 73th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 0th percentile. Counts subscriptions rather than people, so multi-SIM use inflates it above actual penetration. Useful for communications reach, weak as a welfare proxy. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: -5.14
3y change: -0.91
5y change: 7.78
5y % change: 14.7%
Historical percentile: 73th
Peer percentile: 0th
Peer deviation: -51.5
Observations: 13
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 87%

Favourable movement of 7.78 10P2PS over 5 years (2019 to 2024).
Latest value sits at the 73th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_IT_CEL_SETS_P2
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:33.136Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)

WB_WDI_SH_H2O_BASW_ZS

Improvement28Adequate

Latest value

53.4PT_POP

Period 2024

1 year

+0.67

3 year

+2.02

5 year

+3.38

vs peer median

-16.2

FACT

People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population) for Niger was 53.43 PT_POP in 2024 (1y +0.67, 3y +2.02, 5y +3.38).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the top of the country's own observed history at the 96th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 40th percentile. Basic service threshold, which is a low bar. Read the level, not only the direction. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: 0.67
3y change: 2.02
5y change: 3.38
5y % change: 6.8%
Historical percentile: 96th
Peer percentile: 40th
Peer deviation: -16.2
Observations: 14
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 93%

Favourable movement of 3.38 PT_POP over 5 years (2019 to 2024).
Latest value sits at the 96th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 40th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SH_H2O_BASW_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:42.019Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)

WB_WDI_SH_STA_BASS_ZS

Improvement56Adequate

Latest value

16.3PT_POP

Period 2024

1 year

+0.46

3 year

+1.36

5 year

+2.23

vs peer median

-15.5

FACT

People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population) for Niger was 16.34 PT_POP in 2024 (1y +0.46, 3y +1.36, 5y +2.23).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the top of the country's own observed history at the 96th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 20th percentile. Together with water access, a proxy for baseline public health infrastructure and epidemic vulnerability. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: 0.46
3y change: 1.36
5y change: 2.23
5y % change: 15.8%
Historical percentile: 96th
Peer percentile: 20th
Peer deviation: -15.5
Observations: 14
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 93%

Favourable movement of 2.23 PT_POP over 5 years (2019 to 2024).
Latest value sits at the 96th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 20th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SH_STA_BASS_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:42.463Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Gini index

WB_WDI_SI_POV_GINI

Improvement20Limited

Latest value

32.90_TO_100

Period 2021

1 year

n/a

3 year

-4.40

5 year

n/a

vs peer median

n/a

FACT

Gini index for Niger was 32.90 0_TO_100 in 2021 (3y -4.40).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 0th percentile. Survey-dependent and sparse. Underlying survey design and reference concept differ between countries, so only rank comparison is defensible. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: n/a
3y change: -4.40
5y change: n/a
5y % change: n/a
Historical percentile: not computed
Peer percentile: 0th
Peer deviation: n/a
Observations: 4
Recency: 5y
Window completeness: 27%

Peer deviation reported as percentile rank only: levels are not directly comparable across these economies.
Favourable movement of -4.40 0_TO_100 over 3 years (2018 to 2021).
Historical percentile not computed: fewer than 8 observations.
Latest value ranks at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).
Magnitude reduced because the evidence is graded limited.
Most recent observation is 5 years old (2021).

Low confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SI_POV_GINI
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:42.938Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+)

WB_WDI_SL_TLF_CACT_FE_ZS

Improvement48Adequate

Latest value

72.8PT_W

Period 2025

1 year

-0.01

3 year

+0.17

5 year

+9.11

vs peer median

n/a

FACT

Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+) for Niger was 72.78 PT_W in 2025 (1y -0.01, 3y +0.17, 5y +9.11).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows favourable movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the top of the country's own observed history at the 90th percentile. Cross-country comparison is withheld: the measurement concept is not comparable across these economies. A high rate can reflect subsistence agricultural work rather than economic inclusion, so the level is not comparable across structurally different economies. Movement within one country over time is the interpretable signal. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: -0.01
3y change: 0.17
5y change: 9.11
5y % change: 14.3%
Historical percentile: 90th
Peer percentile: withheld
Peer deviation: n/a
Observations: 15
Recency: 1y
Window completeness: 100%

Peer comparison suppressed: this indicator is only interpretable against the country’s own history.
Favourable movement of 9.11 PT_W over 5 years (2020 to 2025).
Latest value sits at the 90th percentile of this country’s own observed history.

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SL_TLF_CACT_FE_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:39:44.836Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

School enrollment, primary and secondary (gross), gender parity index

WB_WDI_SE_ENR_PRSC_FM_ZS

Insufficient evidenceInadequate

Latest value

0.84U

Period 2017

1 year

+0.01

3 year

+0.01

5 year

+0.03

vs peer median

-0.06

FACT

School enrollment, primary and secondary (gross), gender parity index for Niger was 0.84 U in 2017 (1y +0.01, 3y +0.01, 5y +0.03).

ASSESSMENT

Evidence is insufficient to assess direction for this indicator. Most recent observation is 9 years old (2017), beyond the 6 year limit for analytic use. No structural reading should be drawn from this series until coverage improves or an alternative measure is substituted.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: flat
1y change: 0.01
3y change: 0.01
5y change: 0.03
5y % change: 3.5%
Historical percentile: not computed
Peer percentile: 20th
Peer deviation: -0.06
Observations: 7
Recency: 9y
Window completeness: 47%

Insufficient evidence: data quality is inadequate for a defensible reading.
Most recent observation is 9 years old (2017), beyond the 6 year limit for analytic use.

Low confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SE_ENR_PRSC_FM_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:40:00.997Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

WB_WDI_SE_SEC_ENRR

Pressure14Adequate

Latest value

19.9PT

Period 2024

1 year

-1.69

3 year

n/a

5 year

n/a

vs peer median

-19.1

FACT

School enrollment, secondary (% gross) for Niger was 19.87 PT in 2024 (1y -1.69).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows adverse movement of moderate magnitude against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits in the middle range of the country's own observed history at the 61th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 0th percentile. Gross ratio, so repetition and late entry can push it above 100. Read as participation breadth. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: -1.69
3y change: n/a
5y change: n/a
5y % change: n/a
Historical percentile: 61th
Peer percentile: 0th
Peer deviation: -19.1
Observations: 9
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 60%

Adverse movement of -1.69 PT over 1 years (2023 to 2024), given that for this indicator a falling value indicates declining structural capacity.
Latest value sits at the 61th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 0th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

Moderate confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_SE_SEC_ENRR
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:40:04.100Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Government Effectiveness (WGI estimate, approx. -2.5 to +2.5)

WB_WDI_GOV_WGI_GE_EST

Pressure39Adequate

Latest value

-0.77SCORE

Period 2024

1 year

-0.16

3 year

-0.13

5 year

-0.11

vs peer median

n/a

FACT

Government Effectiveness (WGI estimate, approx. -2.5 to +2.5) for Niger was -0.77 SCORE in 2024 (1y -0.16, 3y -0.13, 5y -0.11).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows adverse movement of moderate magnitude against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the bottom of the country's own observed history at the 4th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 80th percentile. Worldwide Governance Indicators are composite perception-based estimates aggregated from expert and survey sources. They carry standard errors this series does not expose, so small movements are not interpretable and only relative position is defensible. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: -0.16
3y change: -0.13
5y change: -0.11
5y % change: -15.8%
Historical percentile: 4th
Peer percentile: 80th
Peer deviation: n/a
Observations: 14
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 93%

Peer deviation reported as percentile rank only: levels are not directly comparable across these economies.
Adverse movement of -0.11 SCORE over 5 years (2019 to 2024), given that for this indicator a falling value indicates declining structural capacity.
Latest value sits at the 4th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_GOV_WGI_GE_EST
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:40:09.113Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Political Stability and Absence of Violence (WGI estimate)

WB_WDI_GOV_WGI_PV_EST

Deterioration98Adequate

Latest value

-1.76SCORE

Period 2024

1 year

-0.11

3 year

-0.28

5 year

-0.57

vs peer median

n/a

FACT

Political Stability and Absence of Violence (WGI estimate) for Niger was -1.76 SCORE in 2024 (1y -0.11, 3y -0.28, 5y -0.57).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows sustained adverse movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the bottom of the country's own observed history at the 4th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 80th percentile. This is a perception-based composite that partly reflects observed violence already recorded elsewhere. It must not be treated as an independent predictor of conflict, and it lags events by at least one annual cycle. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: -0.11
3y change: -0.28
5y change: -0.57
5y % change: -48.2%
Historical percentile: 4th
Peer percentile: 80th
Peer deviation: n/a
Observations: 14
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 93%

Peer deviation reported as percentile rank only: levels are not directly comparable across these economies.
Adverse movement of -0.57 SCORE over 5 years (2019 to 2024), given that for this indicator a falling value indicates declining structural capacity.
Latest value sits at the 4th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 80th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_GOV_WGI_PV_EST
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:40:09.961Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Rule of Law (WGI estimate)

WB_WDI_GOV_WGI_RL_EST

Deterioration84Adequate

Latest value

-0.95SCORE

Period 2024

1 year

-0.14

3 year

-0.35

5 year

-0.41

vs peer median

n/a

FACT

Rule of Law (WGI estimate) for Niger was -0.95 SCORE in 2024 (1y -0.14, 3y -0.35, 5y -0.41).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows sustained adverse movement against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the bottom of the country's own observed history at the 4th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 60th percentile. Composite perception estimate. Interpret as relative standing among peers, not as an absolute measure. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: -0.14
3y change: -0.35
5y change: -0.41
5y % change: -75.4%
Historical percentile: 4th
Peer percentile: 60th
Peer deviation: n/a
Observations: 14
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 93%

Peer deviation reported as percentile rank only: levels are not directly comparable across these economies.
Adverse movement of -0.41 SCORE over 5 years (2019 to 2024), given that for this indicator a falling value indicates declining structural capacity.
Latest value sits at the 4th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 60th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_GOV_WGI_RL_EST
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:40:28.213Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Control of Corruption (WGI estimate)

WB_WDI_GOV_WGI_CC_EST

Pressure50Adequate

Latest value

-0.62SCORE

Period 2024

1 year

-0.10

3 year

-0.05

5 year

-0.18

vs peer median

n/a

FACT

Control of Corruption (WGI estimate) for Niger was -0.62 SCORE in 2024 (1y -0.10, 3y -0.05, 5y -0.18).

ASSESSMENT

The series shows adverse movement of moderate magnitude against this country's own recent baseline. The latest value sits near the bottom of the country's own observed history at the 4th percentile. Relative to the curated peer set it ranks at the 60th percentile. Composite perception estimate, sensitive to changes in the underlying source mix between rounds. This is contextual structural evidence. It may raise or lower the relevance of a hypothesis, but on its own it establishes no mechanism, no trigger, no actor behaviour and no causal relationship to political violence.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: -0.10
3y change: -0.05
5y change: -0.18
5y % change: -40.6%
Historical percentile: 4th
Peer percentile: 60th
Peer deviation: n/a
Observations: 14
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 93%

Peer deviation reported as percentile rank only: levels are not directly comparable across these economies.
Adverse movement of -0.18 SCORE over 5 years (2019 to 2024), given that for this indicator a falling value indicates declining structural capacity.
Latest value sits at the 4th percentile of this country’s own observed history.
Latest value ranks at the 60th percentile of the curated peer set (5 economies with data).

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_GOV_WGI_CC_EST
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:40:32.790Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Tax revenue (% of GDP)

WB_WDI_GC_TAX_TOTL_GD_ZS

Insufficient evidenceInadequate

Latest value

not reported

No period

1 year

n/a

3 year

n/a

5 year

n/a

vs peer median

n/a

FACT

Tax revenue (% of GDP): no observation reported for Niger in the analysis window.

ASSESSMENT

Evidence is insufficient to assess direction for this indicator. No observations returned for this indicator and country. No structural reading should be drawn from this series until coverage improves or an alternative measure is substituted.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: not computable
1y change: n/a
3y change: n/a
5y change: n/a
5y % change: n/a
Historical percentile: not computed
Peer percentile: withheld
Peer deviation: n/a
Observations: 0
Recency: n/a
Window completeness: 0%

Peer comparison suppressed: only 2 peer economies returned a value, below the minimum of 3.
Insufficient evidence: data quality is inadequate for a defensible reading.
No observations returned for this indicator and country.

Low confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_GC_TAX_TOTL_GD_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:40:35.230Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Central government debt, total (% of GDP)

WB_WDI_GC_DOD_TOTL_GD_ZS

Insufficient evidenceInadequate

Latest value

not reported

No period

1 year

n/a

3 year

n/a

5 year

n/a

vs peer median

n/a

FACT

Central government debt, total (% of GDP): no observation reported for Niger in the analysis window.

ASSESSMENT

Show signal components

Direction of travel: not computable
1y change: n/a
3y change: n/a
5y change: n/a
5y % change: n/a
Historical percentile: not computed
Peer percentile: withheld
Peer deviation: n/a
Observations: 0
Recency: n/a
Window completeness: 0%

Peer comparison suppressed: only 1 peer economies returned a value, below the minimum of 3.
Insufficient evidence: data quality is inadequate for a defensible reading.
No observations returned for this indicator and country.

Low confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_GC_DOD_TOTL_GD_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:40:36.154Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Military expenditure (% of GDP)

WB_WDI_MS_MIL_XPND_GD_ZS

Insufficient evidenceAdequate

Latest value

2.24PT_GDP

Period 2024

1 year

+0.27

3 year

+0.88

5 year

+0.32

vs peer median

-0.74

FACT

Military expenditure (% of GDP) for Niger was 2.24 PT_GDP in 2024 (1y +0.27, 3y +0.88, 5y +0.32).

ASSESSMENT

Evidence is insufficient to assess direction for this indicator. 13 observations covering 87% of the window, most recent 2024. No structural reading should be drawn from this series until coverage improves or an alternative measure is substituted.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: rising
1y change: 0.27
3y change: 0.88
5y change: 0.32
5y % change: 16.9%
Historical percentile: 96th
Peer percentile: 40th
Peer deviation: -0.74
Observations: 13
Recency: 2y
Window completeness: 87%

Indicator is contextual by design: it carries no normative direction and does not contribute to any domain signal.

High confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_MS_MIL_XPND_GD_ZS
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:40:48.295Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)

WB_WDI_VC_IHR_PSRC_P5

Insufficient evidenceInadequate

Latest value

4.4210P5PS

Period 2012

1 year

-0.42

3 year

n/a

5 year

n/a

vs peer median

n/a

FACT

Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) for Niger was 4.42 10P5PS in 2012 (1y -0.42).

ASSESSMENT

Evidence is insufficient to assess direction for this indicator. Most recent observation is 14 years old (2012), beyond the 6 year limit for analytic use. Only 2 observation(s) available; 3 are required before any trend is computed. No structural reading should be drawn from this series until coverage improves or an alternative measure is substituted.

Show signal components

Direction of travel: falling
1y change: -0.42
3y change: n/a
5y change: n/a
5y % change: n/a
Historical percentile: not computed
Peer percentile: 67th
Peer deviation: n/a
Observations: 2
Recency: 14y
Window completeness: 13%

Peer deviation reported as percentile rank only: levels are not directly comparable across these economies.
Insufficient evidence: data quality is inadequate for a defensible reading.
Most recent observation is 14 years old (2012), beyond the 6 year limit for analytic use.
Only 2 observation(s) available; 3 are required before any trend is computed.

Low confidence

Source and provenance

Provider: World Bank Data360
Dataset: WB_WDI
Indicator ID: WB_WDI_VC_IHR_PSRC_P5
Endpoint: /data360/data
Retrieved: 2026-09-04T19:40:50.038Z
Delivery: Served from cache
License: Not recorded on this record
Attribution: Source data retrieved from the World Bank Data360 API. The World Bank does not endorse this application or any analytic judgment presented in it, and does not verify the methodology of third-party datasets it redistributes.

4Competing hypotheses

Structural pressure is accumulating and institutional capacity is not keeping pace.

Observed movement reflects measurement and reporting change rather than a change in conditions.

Structural conditions are broadly stable and the operative drivers lie in actor behaviour, governance decisions or external shocks not captured here.

H2 is included by design. A hypothesis attributing observed movement to measurement or reporting change must be carried in any assessment built on modeled estimates, and it is frequently the hypothesis the evidence cannot rule out.

5Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

The matrix is empty until an analyst rates each evidence item against each hypothesis. ACH scores inconsistency rather than support: a hypothesis is weakened by evidence it cannot accommodate, and evidence consistent with every hypothesis is not diagnostic.

ACH matrix. Rows are evidence items, columns are hypotheses. Ratings are entered by the analyst.
Evidence	H1	H2	H3
GDP (annual % growth)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Inflation, consumer prices (annual % growth)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Unemployment, total (% of total labor force, modeled ILO estimate)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Unemployment, youth total (% of labor force ages 15-24, modeled ILO estimate)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births)Confidence: Moderate confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group)Confidence: Moderate confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)Confidence: Moderate confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Access to electricity (% of population)Confidence: Moderate confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Individuals using the Internet (% of population)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Government Effectiveness (WGI estimate, approx. -2.5 to +2.5)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Political Stability and Absence of Violence (WGI estimate)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Rule of Law (WGI estimate)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic
Control of Corruption (WGI estimate)Confidence: High confidence	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic	Neutral or not diagnostic

6Key judgments

No judgments recorded

Key judgments are written by the analyst. The system does not generate them, and no LLM output is written into this section without explicit analyst acceptance. A judgment recorded here must cite the evidence IDs it rests on and carry a confidence level that does not exceed the confidence of that evidence.

7Scenarios

No scenarios recorded

Scenarios use calibrated likelihood language rather than numeric probabilities, and each carries the observable indicators that would distinguish it from the alternatives. Structural evidence alone constrains scenario plausibility; it does not generate scenarios.

8Indicators and warnings

FACTprimary_completion: a further adverse move in the next reporting round would extend the run and strengthen the human development reading. A reversal would weaken it.
FACTundernourishment: a further adverse move in the next reporting round would extend the run and strengthen the human development reading. A reversal would weaken it.
FACTsecondary_enrollment: a further adverse move in the next reporting round would extend the run and strengthen the inclusion and distribution reading. A reversal would weaken it.
FACTwgi_government_effectiveness: a further adverse move in the next reporting round would extend the run and strengthen the institutional and fiscal capacity reading. A reversal would weaken it.
FACTwgi_political_stability: a further adverse move in the next reporting round would extend the run and strengthen the institutional and fiscal capacity reading. A reversal would weaken it.
FACTwgi_rule_of_law: a further adverse move in the next reporting round would extend the run and strengthen the institutional and fiscal capacity reading. A reversal would weaken it.
FACTwgi_control_of_corruption: a further adverse move in the next reporting round would extend the run and strengthen the institutional and fiscal capacity reading. A reversal would weaken it.
FACTPublication of a revised historical series by the World Bank. Material revision to prior years changes the baseline every judgment above rests on and should trigger reassessment.
FACTContinued absence of new observations in the domains currently marked insufficient. Persistent non-reporting in a fragile setting is itself a signal about state statistical capacity.

9Confidence statement

ASSESSMENT

Low to moderate confidence in the structural baseline. 6 of 6 domains produced a defensible reading; 22 of 34 evidence items are graded high confidence and 7 are graded low. Confidence here refers to the observation and its provenance, not to any judgment about political trajectory. Structural evidence alone cannot support a confidence statement about conflict outcomes.

10Collection gaps and plan

Demographic pressure / population_total: Contextual indicator: carries no normative direction.
Demographic pressure / urban_population_share: Contextual indicator: carries no normative direction.
Demographic pressure / fertility_rate: Contextual indicator: carries no normative direction.
Inclusion and distribution / education_gender_parity: Most recent observation is 9 years old (2017), beyond the 6 year limit for analytic use.
Institutional and fiscal capacity / tax_revenue_gdp: No observations returned for this indicator and country.
Institutional and fiscal capacity / central_govt_debt_gdp: No observations returned for this indicator and country.
Institutional and fiscal capacity / military_expenditure_gdp: Contextual indicator: carries no normative direction.
Institutional and fiscal capacity / homicide_rate: Most recent observation is 14 years old (2012), beyond the 6 year limit for analytic use.
Conflict event and actor data are outside the structural layer entirely. No judgment about political violence can be supported from this evidence set without ACLED or equivalent incident data, actor mapping and mobilisation indicators.
Displacement and humanitarian caseload data are not present in this layer. IOM DTM and ReliefWeb integration is required before population impact can be assessed.
Subnational variation is not observable in these series. National aggregates conceal the regional concentration that usually matters most in fragility analysis.

11Domain readings

Economic pressureImprovement76

Demographic pressureStable23

Human developmentStable48

Infrastructure and connectivityImprovement55

Inclusion and distributionImprovement29

Institutional and fiscal capacityDeterioration68

Retrieving structural indicators from the World Bank Data360 API.

A country profile requests every registry indicator for the economy and its curated peers. Responses are cached for 24 hours after the first retrieval.